Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.005044 0.005321 0.005608 0.005927 0.006272 0.006636 0.007047
2025-12-07 0.004518 0.004917 0.005348 0.005850 0.006421 0.007055 0.007815
2025-12-14 0.004223 0.004691 0.005212 0.005839 0.006579 0.007430 0.008497
2025-12-21 0.003897 0.004394 0.004958 0.005654 0.006497 0.007496 0.008789
2025-12-28 0.003737 0.004271 0.004891 0.005671 0.006641 0.007823 0.009404
2026-01-04 0.003628 0.004198 0.004871 0.005736 0.006837 0.008217 0.010120
2026-01-11 0.003481 0.004069 0.004773 0.005694 0.006890 0.008423 0.010596
2026-01-18 0.003365 0.003970 0.004705 0.005683 0.006976 0.008670 0.011136
2026-01-25 0.003244 0.003859 0.004615 0.005634 0.007005 0.008838 0.011571
2026-02-01 0.003203 0.003845 0.004646 0.005743 0.007247 0.009305 0.012464
2026-02-08 0.003111 0.003761 0.004582 0.005720 0.007305 0.009516 0.012989
2026-02-15 0.003033 0.003693 0.004535 0.005716 0.007388 0.009762 0.013583
2026-02-22 0.002926 0.003583 0.004428 0.005628 0.007347 0.009828 0.013905
2026-03-01 0.002831 0.003486 0.004336 0.005556 0.007326 0.009920 0.014274
2026-03-08 0.002765 0.003426 0.004291 0.005546 0.007393 0.010147 0.014878
2026-03-15 0.002645 0.003289 0.004136 0.005373 0.007210 0.009979 0.014802
2026-03-22 0.002598 0.003249 0.004113 0.005389 0.007309 0.010254 0.015506
2026-03-29 0.002569 0.003233 0.004122 0.005450 0.007478 0.010648 0.016450
2026-04-05 0.002509 0.003171 0.004065 0.005411 0.007490 0.010787 0.016943
2026-04-12 0.002461 0.003125 0.004028 0.005400 0.007545 0.010998 0.017586
2026-04-19 0.002404 0.003065 0.003970 0.005355 0.007542 0.011111 0.018050
2026-04-26 0.002395 0.003072 0.004007 0.005456 0.007778 0.011643 0.019381
2026-05-03 0.002350 0.003026 0.003967 0.005435 0.007813 0.011827 0.020031